Pensamiento militar ruso y suposiciones sobre la zona gris y la guerra en Ucrania
Resumen
El 24 de febrero de 2022 Rusia inició su “operación militar especial” en Ucrania. Lo que probablemente se planeó como una operación de cambio de régimen ha derivado en el mayor conflicto que ha tenido lugar en el continente europeo desde la Segunda Guerra Mundial. Aunque se desconocen los factores que condujeron al presidente Putin a tomar esta decisión y acabar con la zona gris que, aparentemente permitía a Rusia mantener el statu quo y controlar la escalada, si es posible exponer los desarrollos estratégico-militares rusos y presentar las hipótesis que podrían haber guiado este fallido golpe de mano.
Texto completo:
PDFReferencias
Adams, D. (2021). Moscow’s Aerospace Theory of Victory: Western Assumptions and Russian Reality. Alexandria (Estados Unidos): Center for Naval Analyses. (https://cutt.ly/RMvbelc).
Arabia, C.; Bowen, A.; Welt, C. (2022, 21 de octubre). U.S. Security Assistance to Ukraine. Washington DC (Estados Unidos): Congressional Research Service. (https://cutt.ly/TMvHZsd).
Asymmetric Warfare Group (2017). Russian New Generation Warfare Handbook. Fort Eustis (Estados Unidos): United States Army Training and Doctrine Command. (https://cutt.ly/lMvKmvZ).
Ball, T. (2022, 11 de abril). Putin “Purges” 150 FSB Agents in Response to Russia’s Botched War with Ukraine. The Times. (https://cutt.ly/nMvZsYo).
Barnes, J. (2022, 3 de febrero). U.S. Exposes What It Says Is Russian Effort to Fabricate Pretext for Invasion. New York Times. (https://cutt.ly/JMvZlzY).
Barrie, D.; Hackett, J. (eds.) (2020). Russia’s Military Modernisation. An Assessment. Londres (Reino Unido): International Institute for Strategic Studies.
Barry, B.; Barrie, D.; Béraud-Sudreau, L.; Boyd, H.; Childs, N.; Giegerich, B. (2019). Defending Europe: scenario-based capability requirements for NATO’s European members. Londres (Reino Unido): International Institute for Strategic Studies. (https://cutt.ly/NMvFS6F).
Bendett, S.; Boulègue, M.; Connolly, R.; Konaev, M.; Podvig, P.; Zysk, K. (2021). Advanced military technology in Russia. Capabilities and implications. Londres (Reino Unido): Chatham House. (https://cutt.ly/NMHy9ym).
Bērziņš, J. (2020). The Theory and Practice of New Generation Warfare: The Case of Ukraine and Syria. The Journal of Slavic Military Studies, 33(3), 355-380. doi:10.1080/13518046.2020.1824109.
Bowen, A. (2022, 14 de septiembre). Russia’s War in Ukraine: Military and Intelligence Aspects. Washington DC (Estados Unidos): Congressional Research Service. (https://cutt.ly/jMvJMA0).
Braw, E. (2022). The Defender’s Dilemma: Identifying and Deterring Gray-Zone Aggression. Washington DC (Estados Unidos): AEI Press.
Brose, C. (2020). The Kill Chain: Defending America in the Future of High-Tech Warfare. Nueva York (Estados Unidos): Hachette.
Calvo, J. (2022a, 20 de enero). Rusia en Ucrania. El despertar de la fuerza. Global Strategy. (https://cutt.ly/oMK7Zaa).
Calvo, J. (2022b). Primeras impresiones militares. In G. Colom-Piella (ed.), La guerra de Ucrania: los 100 días que cambiaron Europa (pp. 65-94). Madrid (España): Catarata-Ejércitos.
Colom-Piella, G. (2018). La doctrina Gerasimov y el pensamiento estratégico ruso contemporáneo. Ejército, 933, 30-37.
Colom-Piella, G. (2019, 22 de marzo). La amenaza híbrida: mitos, leyendas y realidades. Documento de Opinión del IEEE, 24, 1-14. (https://cutt.ly/EMHJRNr).
Colom-Piella, G. (2020). Anatomía de la desinformación rusa. Historia y Comunicación Social, 25(2), 473-480. doi:10.5209/hics.63373.
Cranny-Evans, S. (2021, 24 de noviembre). Russia vs Ukraine: Flaws in Western Gray Zone Theories. Commentary RUSI. (https://cutt.ly/GMHZk69).
Cranny-Evans, S.; Kaushal, S. (2022, 1 de abril). The intellectual failures behind Russia’s Bungled Invasion, Commentary RUSI. (https://cutt.ly/nMvZWyW).
Dalsjö, R.; Jonsson, M.; Norberg, J. (2022). A Brutal Examination: Russian Military Capability in Light of the Ukraine War. Survival, 64(3), 7-28. doi:10.1080/00396338.2022.2078044.
Defense Intelligence Agency (2017). Russia Military Power: Building a Military to Support Great Power Aspirations. Washington DC (Estados Unidos): DIA. (https://cutt.ly/GMvza5R).
Frías, C. (2022, 5 de abril). Ucrania y el ejército ruso: primeras impresiones (I). Documento de Opinión del IEEE, 33. (https://cutt.ly/T1euYaG).
Frías, C. (2022, 12 de julio). Ucrania y el ejército ruso: primeras impresiones (II). Documento de Opinión del IEEE, 71. (https://cutt.ly/m1eu0t0).
Galeotti, M. (2022, 23 de abril). The Interfering Tsar: Why Putin Is Ukraine’s Best Hope of Victory. The Times. (https://cutt.ly/PMvZyi3).
Gerasimov, V. (2013, 26 de febrero). Tsennost' nauki – v predvidenii: novyye vyzovy trebuyut pereosmysleniya form i sposobov vedeniya boyevykh deystviy. Voyenno-Promyshlennyy Kurier. (https://cutt.ly/uM5kwfr).
Goldberg, J. (2016, 15 de abril). The Obama Doctrine. The Atlantic. (https://cutt.ly/YMvHOuP).
Götz, E.; Staun, J. (2022). Why Russia attacked Ukraine: Strategic culture and radicalized narratives. Contemporary Security Policy, 43(3), 482-497. doi:10.1080/13523260.2022.208263.
Gould-Davies, N. (2022). Putin’s Strategic Failure. Survival, 64(2), 7-16. doi:10.1080/00396338.2022.2055818.
Grau, L.; Bartles, C. (2016). The Russian Way of War: Force Structure, Tactics, and Modernization of the Russian Ground Forces. Fort Leavenworth (Estados Unidos): Foreign Military Studies Office. (https://cutt.ly/UMvDIEZ).
Grau, L.; Bartles, C. (2018). The Russian Reconnaissance Fire Complex Comes of Age. Oxford (Reino Unido): Changing Character of War Centre. (https://cutt.ly/lMvnqHd).
Grau, L.; Bartles, C. (2022, 14 de abril). Getting to Know the Russian Battalion Tactical Group. Commentary RUSI. (https://cutt.ly/2Mnm7nu).
Hagström-Frisell, E.; Pallin, K. (eds.) (2021). Western military capability in Northern Europe. Collective defence. Estocolmo (Suecia): FOI. (https://cutt.ly/9MvHTtM).
Jonsson, M.; Dalsjö, R. (eds.) (2020). Beyond Bursting Bubbles: Understanding the Full Spectrum of the Russian A2/ AD Threat and Identifying Strategies for Counteraction. Estocolmo (Suecia): FOI. (https://cutt.ly/qMvvUqn).
Khodarenok, M. (2022, 3 de febrero). Prognozy krovožadnyh politologov. Nezavisimaâ gazeta. (https://cutt.ly/ZMvLVRQ).
Kipp, J. (2012). Russian Sixth Generation Warfare and Recent Developments. Eurasia Daily Monitor, 9(17). (https://cutt.ly/1MvDlYf).
Kofman, M. (2021). Russian Military Strategy: Core Tenets and Operational Concepts. Alexandria (Estados Unidos): Center for Naval Analyses. (https://cutt.ly/JMvbX2G).
Kofman, M.; Edmonds, J. (2022, 22 de febrero). Russia’s Shock and Awe: Moscow’s Use of Overwhelming Force Against Ukraine. Foreign Affairs. (https://cutt.ly/NMvZgAc).
Kofman, M.; Lee, R. (2022, 2 de junio). Not built for purpose: the Russian military’s ill-fated force design. War on the Rocks. (https://cutt.ly/7MvFwqH).
Mahnken, T.; Sharp, T.; Kim, G. (2020). Deterrence by Detection: A Key Role for Unmanned Aircraft Systems in Great Power Competition. Washington DC (Estados Unidos): Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments. (https://cutt.ly/V1w4g9h).
McDermott, R. (2017). Russia’s Electronic Warfare Capabilities to 2025: Challenging NATO in the Electromagnetic Spectrum. Tallinn (Estonia): International Centre for Defence and Security. (https://cutt.ly/PMvHuuu).
McDermott, R. (2021a, 29 de mayo). Russia’s Entry to Sixth-Generation Warfare: the ‘Non-Contact’ Experiment in Syria. Jamestown. (https://cutt.ly/1MvF2vN).
McDermott, R. (2021b, 29 de octubre). Russian Military Thought on the Changing Character of War: Harnessing Technology in the Information Age. Jamestown. (https://cutt.ly/VMvS2Ht).
Mearsheimer, J. (2014). Why the Ukraine crisis is the West’s fault. Foreign Affairs, 93(5), 77-89. (https://cutt.ly/aMHCn4Q).
Mearsheimer, J. (2001). The Tragedy of Great Power Politics. Nueva York (Estados Unidos): W.W. Norton.
Microsoft (2022a, 27 de abril). Special Report: Ukraine. An overview of Russia’s cyberattack activity in Ukraine. (https://cutt.ly/dMvZHeZ).
Microsoft (2022, 22 de junio). Defending Ukraine: Early Lessons from the Cyber War. (https://cutt.ly/EMHS7GT).
Morris, L.; Mazarr, M.; Hornung, J.; Pezard, S.; Binnendijk, A.; Kepe, M. (2019). Gaining Competitive Advantage in the Gray Zone: Response Options for Coercive Aggression Below the Threshold of Major War. Santa Monica (Estados Unidos): RAND Corporation. (https://cutt.ly/TMvGUSw).
Nardelli, R.; Jacobs, J. (2021, 21 de noviembre). U.S. Intel Shows Russia Plans for Potential Ukraine Invasion. Bloomberg. (https://cutt.ly/xM5AKN8).
Norberg, J.; Dalsjö, R. (2022). Why we got Russia wrong. In J. Lundén, G. Bergström, P. Bull, J. Henningsson, J. Norberg, P. Stenumgaard & A. Waleij (eds.), Another rude awakening. Making sense of Russia’s war against Ukraine (pp. 19-24). Estocolmo (Suecia): FOI.
Norberg, J.; Simpson, N. (2021). ZAPAD 2021 and Russia’s Potential for Warfighting. Pensilvania (Estados Unidos): Foreign Policy Research Institute. (https://cutt.ly/AMvGl81).
Oxenstierna, S.; Westerlund, F.; Persson, G.; Kjellén, J.; Dahlqvist, N.; Goliath, M.; Hedenskog, J.; Malmlöf, T.; Engvall, J. (2019). Russian Military Capability in a Ten-Year Perspective – 2019. Estocolmo (Suecia): FOI. (https://cutt.ly/3Mnbrtb).
Pettyjohn, S.; Wasser, B. (2019). Competing in the Gray Zone. Russian Tactics and Western Responses. Santa Monica (Estados Unidos): RAND Corporation. (https://cutt.ly/bMvGC9P).
Pulido, G. (2021). Guerra multidominio y mosaico: el nuevo pensamiento militar estadounidense. Madrid (España): Catarata.
Reuters (2022, 10 de enero). Ukraine says arrests Russian agent planning attacks in Odessa. (https://cutt.ly/F1wlznz).
Schweller, R. (1994). Bandwagoning for Profit: Bringing the Revisionist State Back In. International Security, 19(1), 72-107. doi:10.2307/2539149.
Schwirtz, M. (2021, 9 de diciembre). Ukraine Commanders Say a Russian Invasion Would Overwhelm Them. New York Times. (https://cutt.ly/vMnxsUf).
Slipchenko, V. (2004). Voina novogo pokoleniia: Distantsionnye i beskontaktaktnye. Moscú (Federación Rusa): OLMA-Press.
Sonne, P.; Khurshudyan, I; Morgunov, S.; Khudov, K. (2022, 24 de agosto). Battle for Kyiv: Ukranian valor, Russian blunders combined to save the capital. The Washington Post. (https://acortar.link/O5THhh).
TASS (2022a, 26 de febrero). Zelensky hastily fled Kiev, Russian State Duma Speaker Claims. (https://cutt.ly/d1w2HGw).
TASS (2022b, 19 de abril). Russia begins another stage of special military operation in Ukraine, says Lavrov. (https://cutt.ly/dMKMEfH).
Thomas, T, (2016). The Evolution of Russian Military Thought: Integrating Hybrid, New-Generation, and New-Type Thinking. The Journal of Slavic Military Studies, 29(4), 554-575. doi:10.1080/13518046.2016.1232541.
Troianovski, A; Schwirtz, M.; Kramer, A. (2022, 27 de enero). Russia’s Military, Once Creaky, Is Modern and Lethal. New York Times. (https://cutt.ly/iMnxQD7).
Villanueva, C. (2022). Crónica de un fracaso estratégico. In G. Colom-Piella (ed.), La guerra de Ucrania: los 100 días que cambiaron Europa (pp. 37-64). Madrid (España): Catarata-Ejércitos.
Watling, J.; Reynolds, N. (2022). Operation Z. The Death Throes of an Imperial Delusion. Londres (Reino Unido): Royal United Services Institute. (https://cutt.ly/8MvZPwj).
Watts, B. (2013). The Evolution of Precision Strike. Washington DC (Estados Unidos): Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments. (https://cutt.ly/yMvSKDS).
Zabrodskyi, M.; Watling, J.; Danylyuk, O.; Reynolds, N. (2022). Preliminary Lessons in Conventional Warfighting from Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine: February-July 2022. Londres (Reino Unido): Royal United Services Institute. (https://cutt.ly/H1OKgiI).
Enlaces refback
- No hay ningún enlace refback.
Revista de Pensamiento Estratégico y Seguridad CISDE
ISSN: 2529-8763
www.uajournals.com/cisdejournal
cisdejournal@uajournals.com